Rafael Nadal to beat Roger Federer <Extensive Analysis and Prediction>

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INCREDIBLE VALUE on this match, shocking price for US, HIGH-CONFIDENCE on Rafael Nadal.
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[FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]Day 14 of the Australian Open[/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]
Tennis Majors is investing the daily full capital on the following event, that in our opinion is absolutely the best bet of the Day 14 of the Australian Open and a clear mistake by the bookies.
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Rafael Nadal to beat Roger Federer
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Date: 29 January 2017
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Time: 07.30pm Local Time (09.30am CET)
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Tournament: Australian Open (Men's)
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Round: Final
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Event: Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer
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PICK: Rafael Nadal TO WIN
Odds: 1.85
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Strength: Full Confidence
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[/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]We avoid to do the player's presentation, because all the world knows who are Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.[/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]
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[/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]Keys[/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]
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[/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]Physical Shape:[/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]
There is a lot of talking about Nadal's shape after playing a day later regarding Federer and facing a 5-hours 5-sets match.
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But on the other side not much talking about Federer being about 6 years older than Nadal, coming back from a serious injury, having played as well a 5-sets match on his semifinal against Wawrinka.
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Nadal's physical shape could not be as perfect as it used to be like 5 years ago, but he showed during the whole tournament to be fine, to be in a great shape and very focused.
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Federer instead has been forced to call the physical time out for the first time on his career against Wawrinka and you know that Roger is not the kind of player that could lie.
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The match against Wawrinka has not been physically devastating because all the points were quick, a lot of unforced errors by both players and winners and still Roger faced some physical problems at the end of it.
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What about against Nadal? Against a player that gives you 0 help, that you must play a lot of points and more than one point on a single point, what is usually a winner against most of the players is not against Nadal and the fact that you got to hit one more ball in our opinion will easily force Federer to do more unforced errors and risk way too much on his game and with the match going he will normally get more tired and less focused and this will be the biggest Nadal's key, the long distance.
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Nadal already faced a 5-sets long semifinal in 2009 here at the Australian Open, when he defeated Verdasco and two days later in the final he played Roger Federer and he defeated the Swiss in 5-sets as well.
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You might say that was a different Rafael Nadal and that is true, but that was a VERY different Roger Federer too, because being 29 years old is not being 35 years old and the physical shape and confidence that Roger had back in the days is no way comparable regarding the current one.
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[/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]2/3 and 3/5 Big Difference:[/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]
Roger Federer has the tennis and the talent to play very incredibly, serving great and getting a lot of winners with his major forehand, but how long will he able to do it? 1.3 hours? If to beat Nadal on a 2/3 sets match takes you at least 2 hours, on a 3/5 sets match it takes at least 3 hours and can this Federer play like that for a couple of sets? We believe he could, but can he do that for at least 3 sets? We really doubt so and do you really believe Nadal would loss this one in straight sets? We absolutely don't.
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You might try to analyze things on different ways, but all you can see is Nadal in long distance.
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Hard Court, but not as fast:
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If this match would have been Indoors, at the US Open or maybe Wimbledon, the chances for Roger would have been way higher, but we saw all the tournament long that this surface is not so fast and to make clear winners against
[/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif] Nadal is not easy at all. Being the surface a little slow will help Nadal in order to have long rallys and this will be exactly what Federer hates when he plays against the Spanish. [/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]
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[/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]Federer's backhand against Nadal's forehand:[/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]
The first meeting they had was about 13 years ago and on all the matches another key has been Nadal's forehand on Federer's backhand. Federer really loves to play a "clean" top backhand and the ball that Nadal gives to him is extremely "worked" with a lot of spin and extremely hard to manage for a player that has a one-hand backhand.
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In fact on most of the matches that Federer lost against Nadal, he had an incredible number of unforced errors with the backhand and we are sure Nadal will try to work Federer on that way, letting the Swiss hit as well as possible with the forehand and always playing on his backhand.
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Head2Head and Psychological Impact:
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Nadal leads the Head2Head 23 to 11 and Nadal won the only two meetings they had here at the Australian Open and this aspect confirms how this Melbourne's surfaces goes all the way to Nadal and not to Federer.
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Also, Federer plenty of times played under his possibilities against Nadal and all the world kept talking about the psychological problem of Roger Federer on facing Nadal and again here this could be another key for the Spanish.
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[/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]Verdict:[/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=comic sans ms,sans-serif]
The bookies are trying to respect the name of Roger Federer.
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The media and the bookies are paying too much attention to this 5-sets game semifinal of Rafael Nadal and the one more day rest that Federer had, but in our opinion is there will be a players struggling physically during the match, that one WON'T be for sure Rafael Nadal.
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Nadal psychological better on facing Federer.
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Nadal never lost at the Australian Open against Roger.
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Nadal's key against Roger's backhand.
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Nadal's returns against one of the biggest key of Federer, the service.
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And plenty of more keys that we could easily say.
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Is anyone expecting Federer at 35 years old, coming back from an injury, having had a physical problem on the last match that has not been 20% as intense as it will be against Nadal, beating the Spanish in straight sets in like 3 hours or around that? We don't think so and we just don't know other keys for the Swiss on this match.
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Based on our analysis and keys the odds for Nadal shouldn't be no way close to 1.85 and this my friends is just an INCREDIBLE VALUE.
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Greetings,
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Tennis Majors
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